How the score works

The score is a power law valuation: where today's price sits in Bitcoin's long-run corridor, from 0 (richly priced) to 100 (deeply discounted).

It reads near 0 at the resistance ceiling, near 50 at fair value, and near 100 at the support floor.

  • 60 or more: trading below fair value
  • 35 to 60: trading near fair value
  • under 35: trading above fair value

Bitcoin is trading below fair value

Entry score

100 /100

$59,912, 56% discount to its $135,471 fair value.

Overvalued Fair value Undervalued

Bitcoin Power law

How this is calculated

Bitcoin's USD price has historically tracked a power law of time: a straight line in log-log space against days since the genesis block.

log₁₀(fair) = 5.669 · log₁₀(days) + (-16.441)

  • Genesis (day 0): 2009-01-03
  • Support / resistance: ×0.443 / ×3.62 of fair value (5th/95th-pct residuals)

The slope and intercept come from an ordinary-least-squares fit of log price against log age over Bitcoin’s full daily history (2010 to now), which explains about 96% of the variance (R² ≈ 0.96). The slope (~5.67) was reproduced by three independent fits and matches the commonly cited power law exponent. Support and resistance are the 5th and 95th percentiles of how far price has historically sat from the fair line. Recalibrated periodically.

Price against its long-run fair value. Below the gold line has historically been cheap.

Price Support Fair value Resistance

Loading corridor…

What this score has meant

Median Bitcoin return one year later, grouped by the entry score on the day, across its full history.

Score on the day 1 year later Ended higher
80 to 100 · now +122% 100%
60 to 80 +105% 100%
40 to 60 +37% 65%
20 to 40 -10% 15%

Hover any day on the chart to see how an entry there played out, one year later and up to today.

BTC price history

Drill into 1-minute candles, 5+ years of history, multiple currencies.

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Sender

Name  
Street  
Postcode  
City  
Country Sweden
Org. no.  

Payment options

Bankgiro  
Lightning  

Customer

Name  
Street  
Postcode  
City  
Country Sweden
Org. no.  

Invoice details

Invoice no. 2026-0042
Date 2026-04-26
Due date 2026-05-26
Currency SEK

Lines

Description Qty Unit price
 
 
 

Invoice

#2026-0042

Date

2026-04-26

Due date

2026-05-26

Bill from

-

, Sweden

Bill to

-

, Sweden

Description Qty Unit (SEK) Sum
Subtotal 0.00
Total 0.00 SEK